1 、Incamake yumusaruro w isoko rya octanol nubusabane-busabwa muri 2023

Muri 2023, bayobowe nibintu bitandukanye ,.octanolinganda zagabanutse ku musaruro no kwaguka icyuho-cyo gutanga. Kenshi na kenshi ibikoresho byo guhagarara no gufata neza byatumye ubwiyongere bubi bwumwaka mubikorwa byimbere mu gihugu, bikaba bidasanzwe mumyaka myinshi. Biteganijwe ko umusaruro uteganijwe ku mwaka ni toni miliyoni 2.3992, ukagabanuka kwa toni 78600 guhera mu 2022.Ikoreshwa ry’ubushobozi bw’umusaruro naryo ryaragabanutse, riva hejuru ya 100% muri 2022 rigera kuri 95.09%.

Urebye ubushobozi bwo kubyaza umusaruro, ubaze ukurikije ubushobozi bwo gushushanya toni miliyoni 2.523, ubushobozi nyabwo bwo gukora burenze uyu mubare. Icyakora, kwiyongera kw'ibikorwa bishya by’umusaruro byatumye hongerwa ubushobozi bw’umusaruro, mu gihe ibikoresho bishya nka Zibo Nuo Ao byatangiye gusa umusaruro mu mpera z’umwaka, ndetse no kurekura ubushobozi bw’umusaruro muri Baichuan, Ningxia byasubitswe kugeza mu ntangiriro za 2024. Ibyo byatumye igabanuka ry’imikorere y’inganda za octanol mu 2023 ndetse n’igihombo cy’umusaruro.

2 、Isesengura ryimbitse kubitangwa nibisabwa bya octanol

1.Igabanuka ry'umusaruro hamwe n’ikinyuranyo-cyifuzo: Nubwo umusaruro wibikoresho bishya watinze ndetse n’ibikorwa bimwe na bimwe byavuguruwe bikaba bitarashyizwe mu bikorwa nkuko byari byateganijwe, ubwiyongere bukabije bw’ibikenerwa hasi bwatangiye kugaragara nyuma y’igihembwe cya kane, butanga inkunga ku isoko rya octanol. Kuva muri Nyakanga kugeza muri Nzeri, kubera kubungabunga ibidukikije, amasoko yagabanutse ku buryo bugaragara, mu gihe kwiyongera kw'ibisabwa byatumye kwiyongera k'urwego rutari ruto rw'ibicuruzwa bitangwa.

2.Ibice byinshi byo gusesengura ibyifuzo: Icyamamare cyisoko rya plastike cyongeye kwiyongera, kandi icyifuzo rusange kirerekana icyerekezo cyo kuzamuka. Duhereye ku itangwa n'ibisabwa ku bicuruzwa bikuru byo hasi nka DOP, DOTP, na isooctyl acrylate, birashobora kugaragara ko itangwa rya DOP ryiyongera ku buryo bugaragara, hamwe n'umusaruro rusange wiyongereyeho 6%, bikagira uruhare runini mu kuzamura ikoreshwa rya octanol. Umusaruro wa DOTP wagabanutseho hafi 2%, ariko hariho ihinduka rito muri rusange mubisabwa nyabyo byo gukoresha octanol. Umusaruro wa isooctyl acrylate wiyongereyeho 4%, nawo wagize uruhare mu mikurire y’ikoreshwa rya octanol.

3.Imihindagurikire y’ibiciro fatizo byibanze: Itangwa rya propylene rikomeje kwiyongera, ariko igiciro cyacyo cyaragabanutse cyane, byongera icyuho nigiciro cya octanol. Ibi bigabanya umuvuduko wibiciro ku nganda za octanol, ariko kandi bikerekana itandukaniro mubikorwa byo hejuru no mumikorere.

3 、Ibihe bizaza ku isoko no kutamenya neza ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora

1.Gutanga impande zombi: Biteganijwe ko irekurwa ry’ubushobozi bushya bw’umusaruro rizahura n’ikibazo kidashidikanywaho mu 2024.Biteganijwe ko inyinshi mu nyubako zagutse za Anqing Shuguang n’ibikoresho bishya bya peteroli n’ubukorikori bishobora gukenera gusohoka mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka kugeza mu mpera z’umwaka. Ibikoresho byo kuvugurura Shandong Jianlan birashobora gutinda kugeza umwaka urangiye, bigatuma bigora koroshya ubushobozi bwo gutanga octanol mugice cya mbere cyumwaka. Bitewe nibintu nko kubungabunga amasoko, biteganijwe ko octanol izakomeza gukora cyane mugice cya mbere cya 2024.

2.Gutezimbere ibiteganijwe kuruhande rwibisabwa: Duhereye kuri macro na cycle, icyerekezo cyo hasi giteganijwe kongererwa imbaraga mugihe kizaza. Ibi bizakomeza gushimangira uburyo bwiza bwo gutanga-ibisabwa bya octanol kandi byongere amahirwe yisoko rikora hagati kurwego rwo hejuru. Biteganijwe ko isoko rya 2024 rishobora kwerekana icyerekezo cyo hejuru imbere no hasi inyuma. Mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka, hamwe no gusohora ubushobozi bushya bwo gutanga umusaruro ku isoko no gutegereza kugabanuka kw'ibiciro bikabije, uruhande rw'ibiciro rushobora guhura n’ibintu bimwe na bimwe.

3.Ubushobozi burenze urugero no kugabanuka kw'isoko: Mu myaka iri imbere, umusaruro uteganijwe wo gukora ibice byinshi bya octanol uzarushaho kwibanda. Muri icyo gihe, icyifuzo cyo kwaguka cyo hasi kigenda gahoro gahoro, kandi inganda zisagutse ziziyongera. Biteganijwe ko ibikorwa rusange byibanda kuri octanol bizagabanuka mugihe kizaza, kandi amplitude yisoko irashobora kugabanuka.

4.Ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa ku isi: Biteganijwe ko kugabanuka kw'ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa ku isi bishobora kugabanuka mu 2024.Hashobora kubaho urwego rushya rw’isoko ry’ibimasa, ariko iki cyiciro cy’isoko ry’ibimasa gishobora kuba gifite intege nke. Niba ibintu bitunguranye bibaye mugihe cyo kugarura ubukungu, ibiciro byibicuruzwa birashobora guhinduka.

Muri rusange, isoko rya octanol rihura n’ingorane zo kugabanuka kw’umusaruro no kwagura icyuho cy’ibisabwa mu 2023. Icyakora, kuzamuka kw’ibikomoka ku isoko ryo hasi byatanze inkunga ku isoko. Urebye imbere, biteganijwe ko isoko izakomeza kugumana imikorere ikomeye, ariko irashobora guhura nigitutu cyo guhinduka mugice cya kabiri cyumwaka.

Urebye imbere ya 2024, isi yose igabanuka ryibiciro byibicuruzwa bishobora kugabanuka, kandi muri rusange ibiciro bizerekana ko bizamuka mu 2024.Hashobora kubaho ikindi cyiciro cy’isoko ry’ibimasa, ariko urwego rw’isoko ry’ibimasa rushobora kuba rufite intege nke. Niba hari ibintu bitunguranye bibaye mugihe cyo kugarura ubukungu, ibiciro byibicuruzwa nabyo birashobora kugabanuka no guhinduka. Biteganijwe ko urwego rwa Jiangsu octanol ruzaba ruri hagati ya 11500-14000 Yuan / toni, impuzandengo yumwaka wa 12658 yu / toni. Biteganijwe ko igiciro gito cya octanol kumwaka wose kizagaragara mugihembwe cya kane, kuri 11500 yuan / toni; Igiciro kinini cyumwaka cyagaragaye mugihembwe cya kabiri nicyagatatu, kuri 14000 yuan / toni. Biteganijwe ko kuva 2025 kugeza 2026, impuzandengo yumwaka wa octanol ku isoko rya Jiangsu izaba 10000 / toni na 9000 yu / toni.