Kugeza ubu, isoko ry'imiti y'Ubushinwa rirashe ahantu hose. Mu mezi 10 ashize, imiti myinshi mubushinwa yerekanye kugabanuka cyane. Imiti imwe n'imwe yagabanutseho hejuru ya 60%, mugihe imiti yingenzi ya miti yagabanutseho 30%. Imiti myinshi yakubise hasi mumwaka ushize, mugihe imiti mike yakubise hasi mumyaka 10 ishize. Birashobora kuvugwa ko imikorere ya vuba yisoko rya shimi rya chimique riva.
Dukurikije isesengura rivuga ko impamvu nyamukuru zituma habaho imiti ikomeza kumanuka mumwaka ushize ni ibi bikurikira:
1. Kugabanuka kw'isoko ry'umuguzi, bihagarariwe na Amerika, byagize ingaruka zikomeye ku bicuruzwa bya chimique ku isi.
Nk'uko abashinzwe gutanga icogora Presse, indangagaciro z'amakuru y'abaguzi muri Amerika yaguye hasi amezi 9 mu gihembwe cya mbere, kandi ingo nyinshi zitega ko ikoresha ikoresha mu bukungu kugira ngo ikomeze kwangirika. Kugabanuka kw'ibipimo byamakuru by'umuguzi ubusanzwe bivuze ko impungenge zijyanye n'ubukungu zigenda ziyongera, kandi izindi zo zigabanya amafaranga yo kwitegura mu gukomeza kwangirika mu bukungu mu gihe kizaza.
Impamvu nyamukuru yo kugabanuka amakuru yumuguzi muri Amerika ni ugutangira muburyo bwimitungo itimukanwa. Nukuvuga, agaciro k'umutungo utimukanwa muri Amerika kamaze kuba munsi yikigereranyo cyinguzanyo zinguzanyo, kandi imitungo itimukanwa yahindutse ubusa. Kuri abo bantu, babana imikandara yabo kandi bagakomeza kwishyura imyenda yabo, cyangwa kureka imitungo itimukanwa kugirango bareke kwishyura inguzanyo zabo, ryitwa kwamburwa. Abakandida benshi bahitamo ko bagabanye umukandara kugirango ukomeze kwishyura imyenda, bikabuza isoko neza.
Amerika ni isoko rinini cyane ku isi. Muri 2022, ibicuruzwa byo mu rugo rwa Amerika byari amadolari 22.94, bikaba binini ku isi. Abanyamerika binjiza buri mwaka hafi $ 50000 no gukoresha isi yose yo kugurisha amadolari 5.7. Gutinda mu isoko ry'abaguzi bo muri Amerika byagize ingaruka zikomeye ku kugabanuka kw'ibicuruzwa no gukoresha imiti, cyane cyane ku miti yoherejwe mu Bushinwa yerekeza muri Amerika.
2. Umuvuduko wa Macroeconomic wazanywe no kugabanuka kwisoko ry'umuguzi muri Amerika ryakuruye kugabanyirizwa ubukungu ku isi.
Banki y'isi iherutse kurekura raporo y'ubukungu ku isi yagabanije iterambere ry'ubukungu ku isi yose ku isi kuri 1.7%, igabanuka rya 1.3% riva mu myaka 2020 riteganijwe mu myaka 30 ishize. Raporo yerekana ko kubera ibintu nk'ifaranga ryinshi, biyongera inyungu, byagabanije ishoramari, hamwe n'amakimbirane ya geopoli gucika intege gutinda ku rwego ruteye akaga hafi yo kugabanuka ku rwego rwo kugabanuka hafi y'urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegereye urwego ruteye akaga rwegeranijwe
Perezida wa Banki y'Isi Maguire yavuze ko ubukungu bw'isi yose buhura na "ikibazo cyo kwiyongera mu iterambere" hamwe no gusubira inyuma mu iterambere ku isi rirashobora gukomeza gutera imbere ku isi. Mugihe gukura kwisi yose bitinda, igitutu cyagaciro muri Amerika cyiyongera, hamwe nigitutu cyibibazo byimyenda byiyongera, byagize ingaruka mbi ku isoko ryabaguzi ku isi.
3. Gutanga imiti yubushinwa bikomeje kwiyongera, kandi imiti myinshi ihura nibibazo bikomeye cyane.
Kuva mu mpera za 2022 kugeza hagati ya 2023, imishinga myinshi minini nini nini yimiti mubushinwa yashyizwe mubikorwa. Mu mpera za Kanama 2022, Zhejiang Petrochemical yari yarakoraga toni miliyoni 1.4 z'abatimanamariza miliyoni 1.4 z'amatungo ya Ethylene buri mwaka, hamwe no gushyigikira ibihingwa bya Etylene buri mwaka, hamwe no gushyigikira ibihingwa bya etylene bya epfo. Muri Nzeri 2022, umushinga wa Liyumbang Petrochemical Lethane washyizwe mu bikorwa kandi ufite ibikoresho byo hasi; Mu mpera z'Ukuboza 2022, Shengang Direcre Directument na miliyoni 16 z'ubugari ton mu bikorwa, yongeraho ibicuruzwa byinshi; Muri Gashyantare 2023, Miliyoni ya Miriyoni za Hinan ton Ethylene igihingwa, kandi hamanuka gushyigikira umushinga uhuriweho; Mu mpera za 2022, Ethylene igihingwa cya Shanghai Petrochemical izashyirwa mubikorwa. Muri Gicurasi 2023, umushinga wa TDI wa Wallhua Itsinda rya Wallua Paripa yinganda za Fujian izashyirwa mubikorwa.
Mu mwaka ushize, Ubushinwa bwatangije imishinga minini nini nini, kongera isoko ry'isoko nyinshi. Mu mbaraga z'umuguzi muri iki gihe, gukura kw'uruhande rutangwa mu isoko ry'imiti y'Ubushinwa naryo ryihutishije kuvuza amasoko ku isoko.
Muri rusange, impamvu nyamukuru yigabanuka ryibiciro byibicuruzwa bya chimique ni ugukoresha mubunini ku isoko mpuzamahanga, ryatumye habaho kugabanuka kwohereza hanze yibicuruzwa byimiti byabashinwa. Dufatiye kuri iyi ngingo, irashobora kandi kuboneka ko niba ibyoherezwa mu bicuruzwa byanyuma byanyuma byamasoko bigabanuka, gutanga amakuru yivuguruzanya mumasoko yumuguzi mu Bushinwa bizaganisha kumasaha yo hepfo yibicuruzwa byo murugo. Kugabanuka kw'ibiciro mpuzamahanga byo mu isoko byihanganira gushinga intege nke mu isoko ry'imiti y'Abashinwa, bityo bikagena inzira yo hepfo. Kubwibyo, ibiciro byisoko hamwe nibipimo byibicuruzwa byinshi mubushinwa biracyabujijwe nisoko mpuzamahanga, hamwe ninganda za shimi zisanzwe zibuza kumasoko yo hanze muriki kibazo. Rero, kugirango urangize hafi imyaka imwe yo kumanuka, usibye guhindura ibyo waryo, bizanashingikiriza ku kugaruza amasoko ya peripheri.