Kugeza ubu, isoko ry’imiti mu Bushinwa riraboroga ahantu hose.Mu mezi 10 ashize, imiti myinshi mu Bushinwa yagabanutse cyane.Imiti imwe n'imwe yagabanutseho hejuru ya 60%, mu gihe inzira nyamukuru y’imiti yagabanutseho hejuru ya 30%.Imiti myinshi yageze ku ntera nshya mu mwaka ushize, mu gihe imiti mike yageze ku ntera nshya mu myaka 10 ishize.Turashobora kuvuga ko imikorere iheruka kwisoko ryimiti yubushinwa yabaye mibi cyane.
Dukurikije isesengura, impamvu nyamukuru zitera kugabanuka kumiti yimiti mu mwaka ushize ni izi zikurikira:
1. Kugabanuka kw'isoko ry'abaguzi, rihagarariwe na Amerika, ryagize ingaruka zikomeye ku ikoreshwa ry'imiti ku isi.
Nk’uko byatangajwe na Agence France Presse, igipimo cy’amakuru y’abaguzi muri Amerika cyaragabanutse kugera ku mezi 9 mu gihembwe cya mbere, kandi ingo nyinshi ziteganya ko ubukungu buzakomeza kwangirika.Igabanuka ry’imibare y’umuguzi risanzwe risobanura ko impungenge z’ubukungu bwifashe nabi, kandi ingo nyinshi zikagabanya amafaranga zikoreshwa mu rwego rwo kwitegura kwangirika kw’ubukungu mu bihe biri imbere.
Impamvu nyamukuru yo kugabanuka kwamakuru y’abaguzi muri Amerika ni igabanuka ry’umutungo utimukanwa ufite agaciro.Ni ukuvuga ko agaciro k’umutungo utimukanwa muri Amerika kamaze kuba munsi y’igipimo cy’inguzanyo z’inguzanyo, kandi imitungo itimukanwa yabaye idahwitse.Kuri aba bantu, barashobora gukenyera umukandara bagakomeza kwishyura imyenda yabo, cyangwa kureka imitungo yabo itimukanwa kugirango bareke kwishyura inguzanyo zabo, ibyo bita kwamburwa.Abakandida benshi bahitamo kwizirika umukandara kugirango bakomeze kwishyura imyenda, ihagarika neza isoko ryabaguzi.
Amerika nisoko rinini ku baguzi ku isi.Mu 2022, ibicuruzwa byinjira muri Amerika muri Amerika byari miliyari 22.94 z'amadolari, biracyari binini ku isi.Abanyamerika binjiza buri mwaka hafi $ 50000 hamwe n’ikoreshwa ry’ibicuruzwa ku isi hafi miliyari 5.7.Kuba umuvuduko w’isoko ry’abaguzi muri Amerika wagize ingaruka zikomeye ku igabanuka ry’ibicuruzwa n’imiti ikoreshwa cyane cyane ku miti yoherejwe mu Bushinwa muri Amerika.
2. Umuvuduko wa macroeconomic wazanywe no kugabanuka kw isoko ryabaguzi bo muri Amerika ryagabanije ubukungu bwisi yose.
Raporo ya Banki y'Isi iherutse gushyira ahagaragara raporo y’ubukungu bw’ubukungu ku isi yagabanije iteganyagihe ry’iterambere ry’ubukungu ku isi mu 2023 igera kuri 1.7%, igabanuka rya 1,3% bivuye ku iteganyagihe ryo muri Kamena 2020 ndetse n’urwego rwa gatatu ruri hasi cyane mu myaka 30 ishize.Raporo yerekana ko kubera ibintu nk’ifaranga ryinshi, izamuka ry’inyungu, igabanuka ry’ishoramari, n’amakimbirane ya politiki, izamuka ry’ubukungu ku isi riragenda ryihuta cyane ku buryo buteye akaga hafi yo kugabanuka.
Perezida wa Banki y'Isi, Maguire, yatangaje ko ubukungu bw'isi buhura n’ikibazo kigenda cyiyongera mu iterambere kandi ko inzitizi z’iterambere ry’isi zishobora gukomeza.Uko ubukungu bw’isi bugenda buhoro, umuvuduko w’ifaranga muri Amerika uriyongera, n’igitutu cy’inguzanyo cyiyongera, ibyo bikaba byaragize ingaruka mbi ku isoko ry’abaguzi ku isi.
3. Ubushinwa butanga imiti ikomeje kwiyongera, kandi imiti myinshi ihura n’ibivuguruzanya bikabije.
Kuva mu mpera za 2022 kugeza hagati ya 2023, hashyizwe mu bikorwa imishinga minini minini y’imiti mu Bushinwa.Mu mpera za Kanama 2022, Petrochemical Zhejiang yari imaze gushyira mu bikorwa toni miliyoni 1.4 z’ibihingwa bya Ethylene buri mwaka, hamwe no gutera inkunga ibiti byo mu bwoko bwa Ethylene;Muri Nzeri 2022, umushinga wa Lianyungang Petrochemical Ethane watangiye gukoreshwa kandi ufite ibikoresho byo hasi;Mu mpera z'Ukuboza 2022, umushinga wa Shenghong Gutunganya no Gutunganya imiti ya toni miliyoni 16 zashyizwe mu bikorwa, wongeraho ibicuruzwa byinshi bya shimi;Muri Gashyantare 2023, uruganda rwa toni ya miriyoni ya Hainan rwatangiye gukoreshwa, maze umushinga wo hasi ushyigikira umushinga uhuriweho utangira gukoreshwa;Mu mpera za 2022, uruganda rwa Ethylene rwa Shanghai Petrochemical ruzashyirwa mu bikorwa.Muri Gicurasi 2023, umushinga wa TDI wa Wanhua Chemical Group Fujian Park Park uzashyirwa mubikorwa.
Mu mwaka ushize, Ubushinwa bwatangije imishinga minini minini y’imiti, yongera isoko ry’imiti myinshi.Muri iki gihe isoko ry’abaguzi ridindira, ubwiyongere bw’uruhande rutanga isoko ry’imiti mu Bushinwa nabwo bwihutishije ivuguruzanya ry’ibisabwa ku isoko.
Muri rusange, impamvu nyamukuru yatumye igabanuka ry’igihe kirekire ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa n’imiti ari ukudindira ku isoko mpuzamahanga, ibyo bigatuma igabanuka ry’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga biva mu mahanga.Dufatiye kuri iyi ngingo, birashobora kandi kugaragara ko niba ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ku isoko ry’ibicuruzwa by’umuguzi bigabanutse, ivuguruzanya ry’ibisabwa ku isoko ry’abaguzi ry’Ubushinwa rizatuma igabanuka ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga.Igabanuka ry’ibiciro by’isoko mpuzamahanga ryarushijeho gutuma habaho intege nke ku isoko ry’imiti mu Bushinwa, bityo bikagabanuka.Kubera iyo mpamvu, ibiciro by’isoko n’ibipimo ngenderwaho ku bicuruzwa byinshi by’imiti mu Bushinwa biracyafite imbogamizi ku isoko mpuzamahanga, kandi inganda z’imiti mu Bushinwa ziracyafite imbogamizi ku masoko yo hanze muri urwo rwego.Rero, kugirango urangize hafi umwaka umwe ugabanuka, usibye guhindura ibicuruzwa byayo, bizanashingira cyane ku kuzamuka kwa macroeconomic kugarura amasoko ya peripheri.